South Carolina's Senate runoff, against everything being said about it

Darline Graham Nordone on Kalshi, against every Bluesky post we captured about the race. .

The whole day

Darline Graham Nordone was bid 55¢ when the polls closed and 99¢ at the last quote we hold. The bars underneath are captured Bluesky posts per hour — 649 across this window. Polls closed at 23:00 UTC.

Around the close

23:00:00 +0m00.0s polls close
23:05:46 +5m46.0s 10% of the move (61¢)
23:09:45 +9m45.0s half the move (77¢)
23:36:31 +36m31.0s 90% of the move (95¢)

What the wire published

Decision Desk HQ and the Associated Press, on indexedAt — when the network saw the post, not when the desk made the decision. Both feeds were paginated to exhaustion, so a gap here is a quiet wire and not a truncated query. The projection landed at 00:39:40, +1h39m40s.

UTC	t	src	what
23:09:45	+9m45.7s	DDHQ	0% in — Darline Graham (R): 173 (73.9%); Ralph Norman (R): 61 (26.1%); votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/771242
00:39:40	+1h39m40s	DDHQ	projects Darline Graham wins the SC US Senate Republican Runoff
00:42:18	+1h42m18s	DDHQ	projects Everton Blair wins the GA US House 13 Runoff
00:54:31	+1h54m31s	DDHQ	projects N'Kiyla Thomas wins the OK US Senate Democratic Runoff
01:18:01	+2h18m01s	DDHQ	projects Yes wins the OK Oklahoma Question 846 - Voter ID Requirement Nonpartisan Ballot Question

The first published count of this race arrived at 23:09:45 (+9m45.7s): 0% in — Darline Graham (R): 173 (73.9%); Ralph Norman (R): 61 (26.1%); votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/771242

What people were saying

Click anywhere on the chart above and the panel below jumps to that second. Or press Read as a story in its top right to drop the lanes and read the same posts straight through, in order and at full length.

How to read the panel. Time runs downward and all three columns share it: the price on the left, the clock and the night's moments in the middle, every captured post on the right, each pinned at the instant the network indexed it. Posts that would overlap move sideways into lanes rather than down, so a card's height on the page is always its real time; where every lane is full a card is nudged down and a hairline points back at its true tick. The counter reports how many and by how much. Click any post to open it in full.

Reading mode lays the same posts out in one column, in order, at full length, with the night's moments as headings between them. It moves the cards rather than copying them, so nothing can differ between the two views — but the vertical scale stops being time, which is why the aligned view is the one this page opens on.

Bluesky search is an index, not the firehose: best-effort and lossy, so every count here is a lower bound on what was posted. Times are indexedAt, because createdAt is written by the client and some posts in this corpus claim one later than their own indexing. Bluesky also leans left of the electorate — for a closed Republican runoff the posters are largely disjoint from the people voting, so this is evidence about when information appeared and what was being said, and none at all about who was going to win. The price is the bid: a settled book is one-sided, so a mid would stop exactly when the race was decided.